Yesterday, equity markets experienced a significant sell-off while safe havens continued to gain due to geopolitical concerns. The Nasdaq lost over 1.5%, the S&P 500 declined by 1.2%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell more than 500 points, marking the largest one-day decline since March of last year.

Nasdaq

-1.5%

17,878.7

 S&P500

-1.23%

5,147.21

 Dow Jones

-1.35%

38,596.98

 

Crude oil prices surged, with Brent hitting $91/B, the highest since October 2023, while WTI crossed $87/B.

As markets anticipate the release of the US jobs report today, there is a possibility that geopolitical tensions overshadow the report. This will depend on the development of the tensions in the coming hours.

NFP expectations

Indicator Forecast Prior
Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 214K 275K
Unemployment Rate 3.8% 3.9%
Average Hourly Earnings MoM 0.3% 0.1%

 

According to a Bloomberg survey, the US economy is projected to see the addition of approximately 214,000 new jobs in March, following the addition of 275,000 new jobs in February. Meanwhile, the Unemployment Rate is expected to decrease to 3.8%, down from 3.9%. Additionally, the Average Hourly Earnings are anticipated to rise by 0.3%.

What matters the most in today’s report

Traders often focus on job additions and Average Hourly Earnings MoM, but the jobs report is complex and includes more than nine different gauges, making the results ambiguous.

In today’s report, investors ought to pay close attention to the year-over-year Average Hourly Earnings data to determine whether there are signs of inflation pressure.

DXY weekly close is key

As we mentioned in our previous reports this week, the index completed three weeks of consecutive gains. However, last week’s bullish close is questionable on the back of the shortness of last week’s trading due to the holidays.

The weekly close today is crucial. If it ends on a bullish note, it will confirm the end of the US Dollar Index’s downtrend and signal the beginning of a new bullish trend. However, if it ends on a bearish note, it will confirm the continuation of the downtrend.

The key resistance area remains at 104.50-105.0, while the main support is at 104.0 followed by 104.60’s.

 

Prepared by Nour Hammoury, Chief Market Analyst at SquaredFinancial
Nour is an investor, independent market strategist, and financial advisor. He holds a BA in Finance and Banking Science from Al-Ahliyya Amman University and a CFTe in Economics from the International Federation of Technical Analysts. He has more than 15 years of experience in forex, stocks, and global economic developments, as well as central bank policies and intermarket analysis. He appears regularly on major international TV networks, such as BBC, Al-Jazeera, Al Hurra, CNBC, and Bloomberg, holding open discussions and sharing insights and readings of the markets and trends.

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